Spal 1-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Perugia travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Spal have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Perugia — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spal 1.00 PPG, Perugia 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Spal have won 0, Perugia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Spal in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 54% versus Perugia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 43% | Perugia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.33 xG and Perugia 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.100 / defence 1.354 | Perugia attack 0.967 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 0.993. Data: 72 Spal games / 72 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 37% | Draw 28% | Perugia 35%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Perugia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spal 80% | Perugia 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 37% | Draw 28% | Perugia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Spal 1.33 / Perugia 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.100 / def 1.354 | Perugia attack 0.967 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.111 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Spal (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Perugia xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Perugia kick off?
Spal vs Perugia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Perugia?
Spal 1 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Spal vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Perugia part of?
Spal vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 37% chance of winning, Perugia a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Spal and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Perugia?
Record (3 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 2 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Spal and Perugia in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Perugia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spal's attack rating (1.10) and Perugia's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.52
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Spal xG
Total xG
2.63
1.30
Perugia xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Spal and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Spal and 1.30 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal's recent record stands at 16W 28D 28L from 72 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 22W 24D 26L across 72 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.06 PPG, Perugia on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spal have managed 8W 14D 14L from 36 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Perugia's away record stands at 11W 10D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.04 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Perugia in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 16W 28D 28L in their last 72 games (1.06 PPG), while Perugia have gone 22W 24D 26L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.06 PPG; Perugia away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Spal or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Perugia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Spal's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spal
3
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 67%, Perugia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spal) and 39% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 31%; Perugia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Perugia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spal's games and 47% of Perugia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spal's recent games and 39% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Perugia tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Perugia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Perugia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 35, as Spal and Perugia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.33 xG and Perugia 1.30 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.10 / defence 1.35 against Perugia attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 37% | Draw 28% | Perugia 35%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 43%, Perugia 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.06 PPG, Perugia 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.