Sampdoria 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Como at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Como have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Como's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sampdoria 1.80 PPG, Como 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Como and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Como winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Como trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Como 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 49% | Como 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.36 xG and Como 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.052 / defence 1.222 | Como attack 1.280 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.182. Como have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Sampdoria games / 72 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 26% | Como 47%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Como 2.13. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 70% | Como 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 26% | Como 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Sampdoria 1.36 / Como 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.052 / def 1.222 | Como attack 1.280 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Como (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Como xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Como kick off?
Sampdoria vs Como kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Como?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Sampdoria vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Como part of?
Sampdoria vs Como is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 27% chance of winning, Como a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Como?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sampdoria and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Como in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Como (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
27%
3.77
26%
3.81
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.21
1.85
Como xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
4%
23.94
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.85 for Como, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 16W 18D 38L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Como's form line: 30W 24D 18L from 72 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.86 PPG from 36 outings (7W 10D 19L).
On the road, Como have gone 11W 13D 12L from 36 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.40 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Como in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 16W 18D 38L in their last 72 games (0.92 PPG), while Como have gone 30W 24D 18L in their last 72 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.86 PPG; Como away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Como in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Como runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Como?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Como have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Como last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Sampdoria 1-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 53%, Como 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sampdoria) and 50% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 33%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 39% of games; Como in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sampdoria's recent games and 50% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Como tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Como in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 35, as Sampdoria and Como drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.36 xG and Como 1.85 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Como landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Como attack 1.28 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 27% | Draw 26% | Como 47%, with Como to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 49%, Como 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.