Reggiana 1-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 38%, yet in-form Venezia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reggiana vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Venezia at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Reggiana are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Venezia — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reggiana register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Venezia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Venezia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Reggiana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 59% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 52% | Venezia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.23 xG and Venezia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.946 / defence 1.032 | Venezia attack 1.007 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.037. Data: 56 Reggiana games / 18 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 38% | Draw 32% | Venezia 30%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Venezia (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Reggiana 70% | Venezia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 38% | Draw 32% | Venezia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Reggiana 1.23 / Venezia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.946 / def 1.032 | Venezia attack 1.007 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Venezia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Venezia kick off?
Reggiana vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Venezia?
Reggiana 1 - 3 Venezia.
Where is Reggiana vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Venezia part of?
Reggiana vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 38% chance of winning, Venezia a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reggiana and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Reggiana 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Venezia in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.16
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.31
1.08
Venezia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.08 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 16D 24L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 15W 19D 22L from 56 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.14 PPG, Venezia on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 2W 14D 11L from 27 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Venezia in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 16W 16D 24L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Venezia have gone 15W 19D 22L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Venezia away?
Reggiana's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.33 PPG; Venezia away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reggiana's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 56%, Venezia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reggiana) and 48% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 33% of games; Venezia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Reggiana's games and 59% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reggiana's recent games and 48% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Venezia tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Venezia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.23 xG and Venezia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 38% | Draw 32% | Venezia 30%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 52%, Venezia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.14 PPG, Venezia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.