Reggiana 2-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cittadella at 35% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Cittadella in Serie B (matchday 35). Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reggiana's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Reggiana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cittadella's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cittadella away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Reggiana against 0.80 for Cittadella. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Cittadella have the stronger record — 3 wins to Reggiana's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2024, ended Reggiana 1–3 Cittadella — a Cittadella win.
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 49% versus Cittadella 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Cittadella 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.03 xG and Cittadella 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.838 / defence 1.152 | Cittadella attack 0.822 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.183. Data: built from Reggiana's last 71 games and Cittadella's last 71.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 31% | Draw 34% | Cittadella 35%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.23 | Draw 2.97 | Cittadella 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cittadella at 35% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Cittadella 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reggiana 50% (last 10 home games) | Cittadella 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, matchday 35 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 31% | Draw 34% | Cittadella 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Reggiana 1.03 / Cittadella 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.838 / def 1.152 | Cittadella attack 0.822 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cittadella xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Cittadella FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Cittadella kick off?
Reggiana vs Cittadella kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 25 April 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Reggiana 2 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Reggiana vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cittadella part of?
Reggiana vs Cittadella is a Serie B fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 31% chance of winning, Cittadella a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Reggiana and Cittadella will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Reggiana vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.82x) against Reggiana's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 71 games and Cittadella's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
31%
3.23
34%
2.97
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.15
1.12
Cittadella xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Cittadella Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.12 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reggiana come into this having played 71 games, going 17W 28D 26L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.15 PPG from 71 outings (20W 22D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Reggiana against 1.15 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Reggiana's home form reads 7W 17D 12L across their last 36 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 36 away games (11W 9D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.93 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
Reggiana (Home) vs Cittadella (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Reggiana vs Cittadella Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 17W 28D 26L in their last 71 games (1.11 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 20W 22D 29L in their last 71 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.06 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cittadella in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
0
Draws
3
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Cittadella H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cittadella?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 1, Cittadella have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cittadella last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Reggiana 2-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 53%, Cittadella 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Reggiana) and 36% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 36%; Reggiana have failed to score in 33% of games; Cittadella in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Cittadella Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Cittadella matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Reggiana's recent matches and 39% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Cittadella matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Reggiana's recent games and 36% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cittadella matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Reggiana's recent matches and 61% of Cittadella's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Cittadella 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Cittadella 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.03 xG and Cittadella 1.12 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Cittadella attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 31% | Draw 34% | Cittadella 35%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 38%, Cittadella 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cittadella's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.11 PPG, Cittadella 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 35
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →