Pordenone 0-4 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pordenone host Parma at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pordenone have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Pordenone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Parma's 2.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.18 xG and Parma 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.809 / defence 1.165 | Parma attack 0.976 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.124. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Pordenone games / 2 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 33% | Draw 29% | Parma 38%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Parma 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 33% | Draw 29% | Parma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Pordenone 1.18 / Parma 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.809 / def 1.165 | Parma attack 0.976 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Parma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Parma xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Parma kick off?
Pordenone vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Parma?
Pordenone 0 - 4 Parma.
Where is Pordenone vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Parma part of?
Pordenone vs Parma is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 33% chance of winning, Parma a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pordenone and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Parma in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L. Parma (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pordenone's attack rating (0.81) and Parma's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.49
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Parma xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.28 for Parma, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Pordenone have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pordenone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
The Goals Picture
Pordenone are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pordenone have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Parma in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Parma in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Parma have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Pordenone or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Parma in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pordenone and Parma runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
0
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Parma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Parma 4-1 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pordenone's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pordenone's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Parma tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Parma in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Parma run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Pordenone 0-4 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.18 xG and Parma 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Pordenone fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Parma outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against Parma attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 33% | Draw 29% | Parma 38%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 50%, Parma 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pordenone shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.