Pisa 2-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Spezia meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pisa haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Spezia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Spezia have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Spezia arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pisa, 1 for Spezia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with Spezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Spezia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 71% and Spezia 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 55% | Spezia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.54 xG and Spezia 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.131 / defence 1.092 | Spezia attack 0.937 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.141. Data: 38 Pisa games / 38 Spezia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pisa 45% | Draw 28% | Spezia 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 3.57. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spezia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 80% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 45% | Draw 28% | Spezia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Pisa 1.54 / Spezia 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.131 / def 1.092 | Spezia attack 0.937 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Pisa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Spezia xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Spezia kick off?
Pisa vs Spezia kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Spezia?
Pisa 2 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Pisa vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Spezia part of?
Pisa vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 45% chance of winning, Spezia a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pisa and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Spezia?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Pisa and Spezia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pisa's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.94x) against Pisa's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.63
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.71
1.17
Spezia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Pisa and 1.17 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. Pisa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Spezia's form line: 9W 17D 12L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. Spezia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Pisa against 1.16 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 3W 9D 7L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.95 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Pre-Season
Spezia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Spezia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Spezia have gone 9W 17D 12L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Spezia away?
Pisa's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.37 PPG; Spezia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Spezia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Spezia 3-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Pisa, 53% for Spezia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Pisa and 58% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Pisa's games and 53% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Pisa's matches and 58% of Spezia's.
Do Pisa and Spezia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Spezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 1, as Pisa and Spezia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.54 xG and Spezia 1.17 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.13 / defence 1.09 against Spezia attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 45% | Draw 28% | Spezia 28%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Spezia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.21 PPG, Spezia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.