Pisa 2-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Pisa take on Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Monza meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 4W 0D 0L across 4 Serie B fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Monza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Pisa. A 1.50 PPG lead over Monza (3.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Monza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 50% | Monza 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.94 xG and Monza 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.954 / defence 0.849 | Monza attack 0.698 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.375. Data: 4 Pisa games / 4 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 37% | Monza 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Monza 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 50% | Monza 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 37% | Monza 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Pisa 0.94 / Monza 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.954 / def 0.849 | Monza attack 0.698 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Monza xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Monza kick off?
Pisa vs Monza kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Monza?
Pisa 2 - 1 Monza.
Where is Pisa vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Monza part of?
Pisa vs Monza is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 35% chance of winning, Monza a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Pisa and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Monza in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W. Monza (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.95) and Monza's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.70x) against Pisa's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
37%
2.73
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.76
0.82
Monza xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 14.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Pisa and 0.82 for Monza, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Pisa have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza's form line: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.75 scored and 0.50 conceded. Pisa's scoring rate against Monza's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Monza in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Monza in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 games (3.00 PPG), while Monza have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Pisa or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Monza in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Monza have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2022, when Pisa 3-4 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Monza see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Pisa and 0% for Monza.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Monza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pisa's recent games and 0% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Monza tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Monza in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Monza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Monza 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.94 xG and Monza 0.82 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Monza attack 0.70 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 35% | Draw 37% | Monza 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Monza 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Monza shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.