Pisa 1-2 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Lecco meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lecco's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 1D 6L from 7 games (0.14 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lecco have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lecco's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Serie B this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pisa. A 1.06 PPG lead over Lecco (1.20 vs 0.14) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lecco — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 43% versus Lecco 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 29% | Lecco 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.53 xG and Lecco 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.085 / defence 1.114 | Lecco attack 0.641 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.161. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Pisa games / 7 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 51% | Draw 31% | Lecco 18%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Lecco 5.56. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 80% | Lecco 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 51% | Draw 31% | Lecco 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Pisa 1.53 / Lecco 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.085 / def 1.114 | Lecco attack 0.641 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Pisa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Lecco xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Lecco kick off?
Pisa vs Lecco kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Lecco?
Pisa 1 - 2 Lecco.
Where is Pisa vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Lecco part of?
Pisa vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 51% chance of winning, Lecco a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Lecco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Lecco in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Lecco (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.14 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pisa's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Lecco's attack (0.64x) against Pisa's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 47/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
51%
1.95
31%
3.23
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.36
0.83
Lecco xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pisa and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Pisa and 0.83 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 3D 2L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 0.14 PPG from 7 outings (0W 1D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lecco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Lecco — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 0.71 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Lecco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Lecco in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Lecco have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 (0.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Lecco away?
Pisa's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.33 PPG; Lecco away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Pisa or Lecco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lecco in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
0
Draws
1
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Lecco have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Lecco 1-3 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Pisa, 33% for Lecco — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pisa and 67% for Lecco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco in 33%; Lecco in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Lecco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Pisa's games and 33% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pisa's matches and 67% of Lecco's.
Do Pisa and Lecco tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lecco in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecco defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecco beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.53 xG and Lecco 0.83 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lecco outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Lecco attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 47/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 51% | Draw 31% | Lecco 18%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lecco win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 29%, Lecco 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecco's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.14. Form was overturned, with Lecco winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecco (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.