Pisa 1-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 3D 0L from 8 Serie B appearances (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Lecce (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecce have gone 3W 4D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Pisa against 2.00 for Lecce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 56% versus Lecce 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 25% | Lecce 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.98 xG and Lecce 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.023 / defence 0.885 | Lecce attack 0.892 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.193. Data: 16 Pisa games / 16 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 33% | Lecce 32%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Lecce 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 50% | Lecce 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 33% | Lecce 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Pisa 0.98 / Lecce 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.023 / def 0.885 | Lecce attack 0.892 / def 0.977 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Pisa (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lecce xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Lecce kick off?
Pisa vs Lecce kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Lecce?
Pisa 1 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Pisa vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Lecce part of?
Pisa vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 34% chance of winning, Lecce a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pisa and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Lecce in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Lecce (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.02) and Lecce's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.89x) against Pisa's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
34%
2.91
33%
3.00
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.92
0.94
Lecce xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Pisa and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Pisa and 0.94 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 5D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (8W 7D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Pisa against 1.94 for Lecce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 5W 3D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.81 scored and 0.88 conceded. Lecce's attacking output running into Pisa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Lecce in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Lecce in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 9W 5D 2L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Lecce have gone 8W 7D 1L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Lecce away?
Pisa's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.25 PPG; Lecce away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Pisa or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lecce in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lecce have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pisa
0
Draws
3
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Lecce?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Lecce have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Pisa 1-2 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Lecce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Pisa and 50% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lecce in 38%; Lecce in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 50% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Pisa's recent games and 50% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Lecce tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lecce in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Lecce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Lecce 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.98 xG and Lecce 0.94 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecce landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Lecce attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 34% | Draw 33% | Lecce 32%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 25%, Lecce 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lecce's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 2.00 PPG, Lecce 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.