Pisa 3-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 29 as Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 3W 6D 1L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cremonese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pisa, 0 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 29% | Cremonese 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.895 / defence 1.119 | Cremonese attack 1.029 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.092. Data: 28 Pisa games / 28 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 42%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.55 | Draw 2.78 | Cremonese 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 60% | Cremonese 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Pisa 0.86 / Cremonese 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.895 / def 1.119 | Cremonese attack 1.029 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cremonese xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cremonese kick off?
Pisa vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Pisa 3 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Pisa vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cremonese part of?
Pisa vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 22% chance of winning, Cremonese a 42% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pisa and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.90x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
22%
4.54
36%
2.78
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.12
1.26
Cremonese xG
4.54
22%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
15.99
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 15.1 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Pisa and 1.26 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 14W 10D 4L from 28 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 5L across 28 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.86 PPG, Cremonese on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 7W 6D 1L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 7W 3D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.54 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 14W 10D 4L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 15W 8D 5L in their last 28 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cremonese away?
Pisa's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.93 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cremonese in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cremonese?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Pisa) and 43% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Pisa's recent games and 43% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cremonese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pisa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cremonese 3-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cremonese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Cremonese attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 22% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 42%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 29%, Cremonese 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.86 PPG, Cremonese 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.