Pisa 3-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Como meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Como (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Como have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Pisa's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Como's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pisa lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Como half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 47% versus Como 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 29% | Como 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.50 xG and Como 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.970 / defence 0.916 | Como attack 1.016 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.053. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Pisa games / 34 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 31% | Como 22%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Como 4.55. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 40% | Como 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 31% | Como 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pisa 1.50 / Como 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.970 / def 0.916 | Como attack 1.016 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Pisa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Como xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Como kick off?
Pisa vs Como kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Como?
Pisa 3 - 1 Como.
Where is Pisa vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Como part of?
Pisa vs Como is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 47% chance of winning, Como a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Como?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pisa and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Como 0W.
What form are Pisa and Como in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Como (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.97x the league average against Como's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.02x) against Pisa's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
47%
2.13
31%
3.27
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Como xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
5%
19.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pisa and 0.98 for Como, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 16W 12D 6L from 34 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Como, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 10L across 34 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Como heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 9W 7D 1L from 17 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Como's away record stands at 5W 7D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.26 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 65%.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Como in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 16W 12D 6L in their last 34 games (1.76 PPG), while Como have gone 10W 14D 10L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Como away?
Pisa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.00 PPG; Como away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Pisa or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Como in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Como have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-0 on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Pisa
3
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Como?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Como have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Como last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Como 5-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 41%, Como 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Pisa) and 47% (Como).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Pisa's games and 71% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Pisa's recent games and 47% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Como tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Como in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Como 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.50 xG and Como 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Como attack 1.02 / defence 1.48, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 47% | Draw 31% | Como 22%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 29%, Como 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Como (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.