Pisa 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Pisa take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 13 as Pisa welcome Benevento to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.60 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Benevento in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 67% versus Benevento 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 33% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.01 xG and Benevento 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.061 / defence 0.962 | Benevento attack 0.900 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.016 / away 1.170. Data: 12 Pisa games / 12 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 34% | Benevento 33%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Benevento 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Benevento 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 34% | Benevento 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Pisa 1.01 / Benevento 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.061 / def 0.962 | Benevento attack 0.900 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.016 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Benevento xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Benevento kick off?
Pisa vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Benevento?
Pisa 1 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Pisa vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Benevento part of?
Pisa vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 33% chance of winning, Benevento a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pisa and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Benevento in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.06x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.95
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.02
1.01
Benevento xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pisa and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pisa and 1.01 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 4D 2L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.83 PPG, Benevento on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pisa's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benevento in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Benevento in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Benevento have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Benevento away?
Pisa's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.20 PPG; Benevento away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Pisa or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Benevento in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Benevento runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
1
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Benevento have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Benevento?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 60%, Benevento 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Pisa and 0% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benevento in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Pisa's recent matches and 40% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Pisa's recent games and 0% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Benevento tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Benevento in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Benevento 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Benevento 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.01 xG and Benevento 1.01 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benevento landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Benevento attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 33% | Draw 34% | Benevento 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 33%, Benevento 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Benevento's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.83 PPG, Benevento 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.