Pisa 1-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Ascoli meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Ascoli have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli away from home this season: 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Pisa's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ascoli's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Ascoli — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 70% and Ascoli 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 40% | Ascoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.42 xG and Ascoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.082 / defence 0.966 | Ascoli attack 1.121 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.148. Ascoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Pisa games / 10 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 40% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 32%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Ascoli 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 40% | Ascoli 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 40% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Pisa 1.42 / Ascoli 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.082 / def 0.966 | Ascoli attack 1.121 / def 1.327 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Pisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Ascoli xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Ascoli kick off?
Pisa vs Ascoli kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Ascoli?
Pisa 1 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Pisa vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Ascoli part of?
Pisa vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 40% chance of winning, Ascoli a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pisa and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Ascoli in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pisa's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (1.12x) against Pisa's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.58
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.67
1.24
Ascoli xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Pisa and 1.24 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 6W 3D 1L from 10 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 4L across 10 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ascoli heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Pisa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ascoli's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Ascoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Ascoli in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 games (2.10 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Ascoli away?
Pisa's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.60 PPG; Ascoli away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Pisa or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ascoli in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
1
Draws
3
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Ascoli have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Ascoli 2-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 40%, Ascoli 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Pisa) and 80% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Pisa's games and 80% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Pisa's recent games and 80% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Ascoli tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Ascoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 11, as Pisa and Ascoli drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.42 xG and Ascoli 1.24 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Ascoli attack 1.12 / defence 1.33, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 40% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 32%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 40%, Ascoli 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.