Perugia 3-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Perugia at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Perugia and Ternana meet at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Perugia have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Renato Curi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ternana have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Perugia against 1.20 for Ternana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Perugia lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Ternana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 47% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Perugia 34% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.64 xG and Ternana 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 1.206 / defence 1.117 | Ternana attack 0.886 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 0.999. Data: 62 Perugia games / 62 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 52% | Draw 26% | Ternana 22%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Ternana 4.55. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 50% | Ternana 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 52% | Draw 26% | Ternana 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Perugia 1.64 / Ternana 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 1.206 / def 1.117 | Ternana attack 0.886 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.165 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Perugia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ternana xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Ternana kick off?
Perugia vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Ternana?
Perugia 3 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Perugia vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Ternana part of?
Perugia vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 52% chance of winning, Ternana a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Perugia and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 1 | Ternana 2W.
What form are Perugia and Ternana in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Perugia's attack rating (1.21) and Ternana's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.89x) against Perugia's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.88
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.63
0.99
Ternana xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
4%
23.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Perugia and 0.99 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Perugia's recent record stands at 20W 21D 21L from 62 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 22L across 62 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Perugia against 1.42 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 10W 11D 9L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Ternana in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 20W 21D 21L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Ternana have gone 24W 16D 22L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Ternana away?
Perugia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.37 PPG; Ternana away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Perugia or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ternana in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
1
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Ternana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Perugia 3-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 47%, Ternana 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Perugia) and 60% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Perugia's games and 73% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Perugia's recent games and 60% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Ternana tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ternana in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Perugia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Ternana 3-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.64 xG and Ternana 0.99 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 1.21 / defence 1.12 against Ternana attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 52% | Draw 26% | Ternana 22%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 34%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ternana's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.31 PPG, Ternana 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.