Perugia 0-2 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Perugia take on Reggina.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Curi plays host to Perugia versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 28 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Perugia (all games): 3W 5D 1L across 9 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.56 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.56 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 9 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia have gone 1W 2D 1L this season (4 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 1L from 9 games (1.78 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.56 PPG for Perugia against 1.78 for Reggina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 33% versus Reggina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 22% | Reggina 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.02 xG and Reggina 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.870 / defence 1.102 | Reggina attack 0.677 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.122. Data: 9 Perugia games / 9 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 36% | Draw 37% | Reggina 26%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Reggina 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Perugia 75% | Reggina 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 36% | Draw 37% | Reggina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Perugia 1.02 / Reggina 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.870 / def 1.102 | Reggina attack 0.677 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Reggina xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Reggina kick off?
Perugia vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Reggina?
Perugia 0 - 2 Reggina.
Where is Perugia vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Reggina part of?
Perugia vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 36% chance of winning, Reggina a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Perugia and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Reggina in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-1L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.56 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Reggina (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.89 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.87) and Reggina's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.68x) against Perugia's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
37%
2.68
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.86
0.84
Reggina xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Perugia and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Perugia and 0.84 for Reggina, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 3W 5D 1L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina's form line: 4W 4D 1L from 9 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Perugia against 1.78 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Perugia have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Reggina's season.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.11 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Reggina in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 3W 5D 1L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Reggina have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Reggina away?
Perugia's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.25 PPG; Reggina away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Perugia or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Reggina in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Perugia
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2023, when Perugia 1-3 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 75%, Reggina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Perugia and 0% for Reggina.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Reggina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Perugia's games and 50% of Reggina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Perugia's recent games and 0% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Reggina tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Reggina in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Perugia 0-2 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.02 xG and Reggina 0.84 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Perugia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Reggina outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Reggina attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 36% | Draw 37% | Reggina 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reggina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 22%, Reggina 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggina's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.56 PPG, Reggina 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.