Perugia 2-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Perugia take on Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Parma travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 April 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Parma — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Perugia have won 0, Parma 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Perugia trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 51% versus Parma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 29% | Parma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.76 xG and Parma 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.710 / defence 1.000 | Parma attack 0.855 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.077. Perugia's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Perugia games / 35 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 26% | Draw 39% | Parma 35%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.85 | Draw 2.56 | Parma 2.86. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Perugia's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 26% | Draw 39% | Parma 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Perugia 0.76 / Parma 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.710 / def 1.000 | Parma attack 0.855 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Parma xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Parma kick off?
Perugia vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Parma?
Perugia 2 - 1 Parma.
Where is Perugia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Parma part of?
Perugia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 26% chance of winning, Parma a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Perugia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Perugia and Parma in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Parma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.71x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.87
39%
2.56
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.68
0.92
Parma xG
3.87
26%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Perugia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Perugia and 0.92 for Parma, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 16D 7L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (10W 15D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.49 PPG, Parma on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Perugia's home form reads 4W 8D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.26 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Parma in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 12W 16D 7L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Parma have gone 10W 15D 10L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.18 PPG; Parma away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Perugia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Perugia's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Parma 2-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 47%, Parma 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Perugia and 53% for Parma.
On the defensive side: Parma in 35%; Perugia have failed to score in 29% of games; Parma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Perugia's recent matches and 53% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Perugia's recent games and 53% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Parma tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Parma in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Perugia defy the odds to beat Parma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Parma 2-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.76 xG and Parma 0.92 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.71 / defence 1.00 against Parma attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 26% | Draw 39% | Parma 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Perugia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 29%, Parma 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.49 PPG, Parma 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.