Perugia 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Perugia welcome Cosenza to Stadio Renato Curi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Perugia 1.33 PPG, Cosenza 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Perugia in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 33% versus Cosenza 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Perugia 33% | Cosenza 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.77 xG and Cosenza 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 1.080 / defence 1.364 | Cosenza attack 0.700 / defence 1.520. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.262. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.520 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Perugia games / 3 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 50% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 25%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Cosenza 4.00. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 33% | Cosenza 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 50% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Perugia 1.77 / Cosenza 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 1.080 / def 1.364 | Cosenza attack 0.700 / def 1.520 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Perugia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cosenza xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Cosenza kick off?
Perugia vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Cosenza?
Perugia 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Perugia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Cosenza part of?
Perugia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 50% chance of winning, Cosenza a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Perugia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Cosenza in?
Perugia (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Perugia's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.05
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.97
1.21
Cosenza xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
4%
23.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Perugia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Perugia and 1.21 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.33 PPG, Cosenza on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cosenza in 67%.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Perugia or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Cosenza in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Cosenza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Perugia's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
3
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Cosenza?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 33%, Cosenza 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Perugia) and 67% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 33% of games; Cosenza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Perugia's recent matches and 67% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Perugia's recent games and 67% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 4, as Perugia and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.77 xG and Cosenza 1.21 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 1.08 / defence 1.36 against Cosenza attack 0.70 / defence 1.52, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 50% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 25%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 33%, Cosenza 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.33 PPG, Cosenza 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.