Perugia 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Perugia take on Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Lecce travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Lecce's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Perugia's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Perugia, 0 for Lecce and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Perugia trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Lecce trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 48% versus Lecce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Perugia 33% | Lecce 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.70 xG and Lecce 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.779 / defence 0.897 | Lecce attack 0.814 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.129. Perugia's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Perugia games / 27 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 26% | Draw 42% | Lecce 33%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.85 | Draw 2.38 | Lecce 3.03. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Perugia's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 20% | Lecce 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 26% | Draw 42% | Lecce 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 31% | xG Perugia 0.70 / Lecce 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.779 / def 0.897 | Lecce attack 0.814 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Lecce xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Lecce kick off?
Perugia vs Lecce kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Lecce?
Perugia 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Perugia vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Lecce part of?
Perugia vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 26% chance of winning, Lecce a 33% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Perugia and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 1 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Perugia and Lecce in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.78x the league average against Lecce's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.89
42%
2.40
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.53
0.82
Lecce xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.7 | 17.9 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.4%.
How many goals are Perugia and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Perugia and 0.82 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia's recent record stands at 10W 11D 6L from 27 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 3L across 27 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lecce by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Perugia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 4W 5D 4L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 5W 6D 2L across 13 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.67 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Lecce in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Lecce in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 10W 11D 6L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while Lecce have gone 14W 10D 3L in their last 27 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.31 PPG; Lecce away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Perugia or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Lecce in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Perugia
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Perugia 1-1 Lecce.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 38%, Lecce 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Perugia and 31% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lecce in 38%; Perugia have failed to score in 31% of games; Lecce in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Perugia's recent matches and 46% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Perugia's recent games and 31% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Lecce tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lecce in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Lecce finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.70 xG and Lecce 0.82 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.78 / defence 0.90 against Lecce attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 26% | Draw 42% | Lecce 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 33%, Lecce 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecce's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.