Perugia 3-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to Stadio Renato Curi to face Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Perugia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Frosinone (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Frosinone are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Perugia 0W, Frosinone 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 48% versus Frosinone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 24% | Frosinone 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.78 xG and Frosinone 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.781 / defence 1.059 | Frosinone attack 1.150 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.167. Perugia's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Perugia games / 21 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 17% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 49%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 5.88 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 2.04. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 50% | Frosinone 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 17% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Perugia 0.78 / Frosinone 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.781 / def 1.059 | Frosinone attack 1.150 / def 1.037 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Frosinone xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Frosinone kick off?
Perugia vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Frosinone?
Perugia 3 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Perugia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Frosinone part of?
Perugia vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 17% chance of winning, Frosinone a 49% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Perugia and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Perugia and Frosinone in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.78x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.15x) against Perugia's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
17%
5.72
33%
3.01
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.20
1.42
Frosinone xG
5.72
17%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
23.70
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.8 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Perugia and 1.42 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Perugia come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 10D 4L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (9W 10D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Perugia against 1.76 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Perugia's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.90 points per game from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.62 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Frosinone in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 7W 10D 4L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 9W 10D 2L in their last 21 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.30 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Perugia or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Frosinone in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 3-0 on 12 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
2
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Frosinone have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Perugia 1-1 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 50%, Frosinone 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Perugia and 30% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Perugia's games and 60% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Perugia's recent games and 30% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Frosinone tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Perugia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Frosinone 3-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.78 xG and Frosinone 1.42 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Frosinone attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 17% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 49%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Perugia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 24%, Frosinone 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Frosinone's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.48 PPG, Frosinone 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.