Parma 4-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Spal make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 13:05 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spal's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Parma against 1.00 for Spal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Parma lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Spal half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Spal 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 44% | Spal 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.37 xG and Spal 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.975 / defence 1.188 | Spal attack 0.633 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.170. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Parma games / 25 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 34% | Spal 21%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Spal 4.76. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 60% | Spal 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 34% | Spal 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Parma 1.37 / Spal 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.975 / def 1.188 | Spal attack 0.633 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Spal xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Spal kick off?
Parma vs Spal kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Spal?
Parma 4 - 0 Spal.
Where is Parma vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Spal part of?
Parma vs Spal is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 45% chance of winning, Spal a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Spal 0W.
What form are Parma and Spal in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.97) and Spal's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.63x) against Parma's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
45%
2.22
34%
2.92
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Parma xG
Total xG
2.25
0.88
Spal xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Parma and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Parma and 0.88 for Spal, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 6W 11D 8L from 25 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 10L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Parma against 1.08 for Spal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spal's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spal in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Spal in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 6W 11D 8L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Spal have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Spal away?
Parma's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.17 PPG; Spal away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Parma or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Spal in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Parma won 4-0 on 26 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Spal have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Spal 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Spal?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 58%, Spal 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Parma and 33% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Spal in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Parma's recent matches and 42% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Parma's recent games and 33% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Spal tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Spal in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Parma run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Spal 4-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.37 xG and Spal 0.88 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Spal attack 0.63 / defence 1.39, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 45% | Draw 34% | Spal 21%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 44%, Spal 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spal's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.16 PPG, Spal 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.