Parma 1-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Parma welcome Perugia to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Perugia have gone 3W 4D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Perugia's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Parma's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Perugia in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Perugia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 50% | Perugia 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.71 xG and Perugia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.712 / defence 0.953 | Perugia attack 0.806 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.184. Parma's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Parma games / 16 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 36% | Perugia 38%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Perugia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Parma's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 43% | Perugia 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 36% | Perugia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Parma 0.71 / Perugia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.712 / def 0.953 | Perugia attack 0.806 / def 1.014 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Perugia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Perugia xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Perugia kick off?
Parma vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Perugia?
Parma 1 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Parma vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Perugia part of?
Parma vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 26% chance of winning, Perugia a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Parma and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Perugia in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Perugia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Parma's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
26%
3.82
36%
2.77
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Parma xG
Total xG
1.62
0.91
Perugia xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 18.0 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Parma and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Parma and 0.91 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 7D 5L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (6W 7D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.19 PPG, Perugia on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.06 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Perugia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Perugia have gone 6W 7D 3L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.29 PPG; Perugia away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Parma or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Perugia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Perugia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Parma 2-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Perugia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 43%, Perugia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Parma and 43% for Perugia.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Perugia in 57%; Parma have failed to score in 29% of games; Perugia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Parma's recent matches and 43% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Parma's recent games and 43% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Perugia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Perugia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Perugia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Perugia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.71 xG and Perugia 0.91 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.71 / defence 0.95 against Perugia attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 26% | Draw 36% | Perugia 38%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 50%, Perugia 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.19 PPG, Perugia 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.