Parma 2-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Parma welcome Palermo to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Parma — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Parma's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Ennio Tardini this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Parma) versus 1.70 (Palermo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Parma, 1 for Palermo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Palermo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 37% versus Palermo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 33% | Palermo 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.34 xG and Palermo 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.883 / defence 0.871 | Palermo attack 1.153 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.968. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Parma games / 30 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 28% | Palermo 27%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 3.70. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Parma 20% | Palermo 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 28% | Palermo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Parma 1.34 / Palermo 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.883 / def 0.871 | Palermo attack 1.153 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Palermo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Palermo kick off?
Parma vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Palermo?
Parma 2 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Parma vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Palermo part of?
Parma vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 45% chance of winning, Palermo a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Parma and Palermo in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Palermo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.55
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Parma xG
Total xG
2.31
0.97
Palermo xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Parma and 0.97 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 11W 8D 11L from 30 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 8L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.37 PPG, Palermo on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 7W 2D 6L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 3W 7D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.27 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Palermo in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Palermo have gone 10W 12D 8L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Palermo away?
Parma's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.53 PPG; Palermo away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Parma or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palermo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Parma's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Palermo 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 33%, Palermo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Parma) and 40% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 33% of games; Palermo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Parma's recent matches and 60% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Parma's recent games and 40% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Palermo tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Palermo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Palermo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Palermo 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.34 xG and Palermo 0.97 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Palermo attack 1.15 / defence 1.33, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 45% | Draw 28% | Palermo 27%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 33%, Palermo 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.37 PPG, Palermo 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.