Parma 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 2W 4D 2L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 4W 4D 1L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Parma) versus 1.70 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Parma, 0 for Frosinone and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Frosinone 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 44% | Frosinone 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.85 xG and Frosinone 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.771 / defence 0.965 | Frosinone attack 1.160 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.269. Parma's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Parma games / 19 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 22% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 49%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 2.04. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Frosinone 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 22% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Parma 0.85 / Frosinone 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.771 / def 0.965 | Frosinone attack 1.160 / def 1.117 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Frosinone xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Frosinone kick off?
Parma vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Frosinone?
Parma 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Parma vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Frosinone part of?
Parma vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 22% chance of winning, Frosinone a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Parma and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Parma and Frosinone in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.77x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
22%
4.65
29%
3.44
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Parma xG
Total xG
2.27
1.42
Frosinone xG
4.65
22%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
5%
19.24
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 14.7 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Parma and 1.42 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 8D 5L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (7W 9D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.28 PPG, Frosinone on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.61 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 7W 9D 2L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.25 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Parma or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Frosinone in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Parma's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Frosinone 3-4 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Frosinone?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 50%, Frosinone 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Parma and 38% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Parma's games and 75% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Parma's recent games and 38% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Frosinone tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.85 xG and Frosinone 1.42 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Frosinone attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 22% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 49%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 44%, Frosinone 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.28 PPG, Frosinone 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.