Parma 0-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Parma welcome Brescia to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Brescia — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brescia have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away fixtures this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.29 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Brescia — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Brescia in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 64% and Brescia 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 57% | Brescia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.89 xG and Brescia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.741 / defence 0.977 | Brescia attack 1.122 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.182. Parma's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Parma games / 14 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 25% | Draw 30% | Brescia 45%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Brescia 2.22. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Brescia 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 25% | Draw 30% | Brescia 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Parma 0.89 / Brescia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.741 / def 0.977 | Brescia attack 1.122 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Brescia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Brescia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Brescia kick off?
Parma vs Brescia kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Brescia?
Parma 0 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Parma vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Brescia part of?
Parma vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 25% chance of winning, Brescia a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Parma and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Brescia in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Brescia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
25%
4.08
30%
3.29
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Parma xG
Total xG
2.18
1.29
Brescia xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.6 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Parma and 1.29 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 6D 4L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.93 PPG from 14 outings (8W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Parma's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.86 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Brescia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Brescia have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.50 PPG; Brescia away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Parma's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Parma
0
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 4, Brescia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Brescia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 50%, Brescia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Parma) and 67% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Parma's games and 67% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Parma's recent games and 67% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Brescia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Brescia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.89 xG and Brescia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.74 / defence 0.98 against Brescia attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 25% | Draw 30% | Brescia 45%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 57%, Brescia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.