Palermo 2-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Palermo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Ternana encounter.

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Analysis

Ternana make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

Palermo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ternana have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Palermo's favour (2.10 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Palermo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ternana in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palermo lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 58% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Ternana 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 2.12 xG and Ternana 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.417 / defence 1.009 | Ternana attack 1.050 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.204. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.417 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Palermo games / 64 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palermo 56% | Draw 23% | Ternana 21%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Ternana 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Ternana 70% BTTS from recent games.

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