Palermo vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Palermo welcome Mantova to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Palermo haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Mantova haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Mantova have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.80 PPG, Mantova 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Mantova and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Mantova in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 40% versus Mantova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 45% | Mantova 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.84 xG and Mantova 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.147 / defence 0.925 | Mantova attack 1.027 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Palermo games / 38 Mantova games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palermo 55% | Draw 25% | Mantova 20%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Mantova 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 40% | Mantova 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 55% | Draw 25% | Mantova 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Palermo 1.84 / Mantova 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.147 / def 0.925 | Mantova attack 1.027 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Palermo (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Mantova xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Mantova kick off?
Palermo vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Mantova part of?
Palermo vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 55% chance of winning, Mantova a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Palermo and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
Record (4 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 3 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Palermo and Mantova in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Palermo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Palermo vs Mantova?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.15) and Mantova's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.00
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.85
1.02
Mantova xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
3%
32.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Palermo and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Palermo and 1.02 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 20W 11D 7L from 38 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. Palermo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 18L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. Mantova haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 14W 3D 1L from 18 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mantova's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.18 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Pre-Season
Mantova
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Mantova in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 20W 11D 7L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Mantova have gone 13W 7D 18L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Mantova away?
Palermo's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.50 PPG; Mantova away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Palermo or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mantova in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palermo's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Mantova have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Mantova?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Palermo 28% BTTS, Mantova 39%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palermo) and 56% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Mantova in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Palermo's recent matches and 39% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palermo's recent games and 56% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Mantova tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Mantova in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.