Palermo 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palermo and Benevento meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Benevento have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Palermo, 0.70 for Benevento — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Benevento and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Palermo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 52% versus Benevento 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 39% | Benevento 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.18 xG and Benevento 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.002 / defence 0.990 | Benevento attack 0.823 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 0.960. Data: 33 Palermo games / 71 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 44% | Draw 33% | Benevento 23%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Benevento 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Benevento 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 44% | Draw 33% | Benevento 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Palermo 1.18 / Benevento 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.002 / def 0.990 | Benevento attack 0.823 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.115 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Palermo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Benevento xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Benevento kick off?
Palermo vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Benevento?
Palermo 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Palermo vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Benevento part of?
Palermo vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 44% chance of winning, Benevento a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Palermo and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Palermo and Benevento in?
Palermo (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.00x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.82x) against Palermo's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.04
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.96
0.78
Benevento xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Palermo and 0.78 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 10W 13D 10L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Benevento's form line: 6W 12D 15L from 33 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Palermo against 0.91 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 3W 7D 6L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.76 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Benevento in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 10W 13D 10L in their last 33 games (1.30 PPG), while Benevento have gone 6W 12D 15L in their last 33 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Benevento away?
Palermo's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.69 PPG; Benevento away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Palermo or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Benevento in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Benevento have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Palermo 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Benevento?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 38%, Benevento 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Palermo and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 38% of games; Benevento in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Palermo's recent matches and 44% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Palermo's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Palermo and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 34, as Palermo and Benevento drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.18 xG and Benevento 0.78 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Benevento attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 44% | Draw 33% | Benevento 23%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 39%, Benevento 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.30 PPG, Benevento 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.