Cosenza 1-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cosenza welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cosenza have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Feralpisalo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 road games (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
On current form, Cosenza have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Feralpisalo trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 46% versus Feralpisalo 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 54% | Feralpisalo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 2.14 xG and Feralpisalo 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.280 / defence 0.971 | Feralpisalo attack 0.624 / defence 1.532. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.216. Cosenza carry an above-average attack rating of 1.280 — their 2.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.532 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.624 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Cosenza's last 49 games and Feralpisalo's last 11.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 68% | Draw 22% | Feralpisalo 10%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 1.47 | Draw 4.60 | Feralpisalo 9.92. The model has a clear lean to Cosenza (68%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 50% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 33% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 68% | Draw 22% | Feralpisalo 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Cosenza 2.14 / Feralpisalo 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.280 / def 0.971 | Feralpisalo attack 0.624 / def 1.532 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Feralpisalo xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Feralpisalo FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Cosenza vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Cosenza vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Feralpisalo part of?
Cosenza vs Feralpisalo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 68% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cosenza and Feralpisalo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Cosenza vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Feralpisalo's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 49 games and Feralpisalo's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.60
10%
9.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.87
0.74
Feralpisalo xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
9.92
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
84.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Feralpisalo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.74 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 8L across 11 games — 0.45 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across their last 5 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.45 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
Cosenza (Home) vs Feralpisalo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Cosenza vs Feralpisalo Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Feralpisalo away?
Cosenza's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.40 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Feralpisalo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Feralpisalo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
2
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Feralpisalo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Feralpisalo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 0, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Feralpisalo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Feralpisalo 2-2 Cosenza.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 60%, Feralpisalo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Cosenza and 80% for Feralpisalo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Feralpisalo in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Feralpisalo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Feralpisalo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cosenza's recent matches and 40% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cosenza and Feralpisalo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Cosenza's matches and 80% of Feralpisalo's.
Do Cosenza and Feralpisalo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Cosenza's recent matches and 60% of Feralpisalo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Feralpisalo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Feralpisalo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 2.14 xG and Feralpisalo 0.74 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Feralpisalo attack 0.62 / defence 1.53, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 68% | Draw 22% | Feralpisalo 10%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 54%, Feralpisalo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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