Modena 0-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 38%, yet in-form Palermo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Modena vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Palermo at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palermo are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Palermo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Modena's 0 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palermo have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Palermo trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Palermo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Palermo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.25 xG and Palermo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.014 / defence 1.052 | Palermo attack 1.068 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.056. Data: 58 Modena games / 58 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 28% | Palermo 35%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Modena 60% | Palermo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 28% | Palermo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.25 / Palermo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.014 / def 1.052 | Palermo attack 1.068 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Modena (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Palermo xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Palermo kick off?
Modena vs Palermo kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Palermo?
Modena 0 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Modena vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Palermo part of?
Modena vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 38% chance of winning, Palermo a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
Record (7 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 2 | Palermo 5W.
What form are Modena and Palermo in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Palermo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.63
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Modena xG
Total xG
2.44
1.19
Palermo xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Modena and 1.19 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Modena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 20D 19L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 24W 17D 17L from 58 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.33 PPG, Palermo on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (10W 10D 8L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.41 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Palermo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 19W 20D 19L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Palermo have gone 24W 17D 17L in their last 58 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Palermo away?
Modena's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.43 PPG; Palermo away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Modena or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Palermo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Palermo have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Modena at 64%, Palermo at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Modena) and 54% (Palermo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Modena's games and 68% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Modena's matches and 54% of Palermo's.
Do Modena and Palermo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Palermo in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 21, as Modena and Palermo drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.25 xG and Palermo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Palermo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Palermo attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 28% | Palermo 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Palermo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Palermo 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.