Modena 2-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 February 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cagliari — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Modena) versus 1.60 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Cagliari and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Cagliari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 64% and Cagliari 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 54% | Cagliari 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.41 xG and Cagliari 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.094 / defence 1.135 | Cagliari attack 0.828 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.042. Data: 22 Modena games / 22 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 26%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Cagliari 3.85. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 60% | Cagliari 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Modena 1.41 / Cagliari 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.094 / def 1.135 | Cagliari attack 0.828 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Modena (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cagliari xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cagliari kick off?
Modena vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cagliari?
Modena 2 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Modena vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cagliari part of?
Modena vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 47% chance of winning, Cagliari a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Modena and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Modena and Cagliari in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.60
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Modena xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Cagliari xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Modena and 0.98 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Modena have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 8W 4D 10L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari's form line: 8W 8D 6L from 22 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.27 PPG, Cagliari on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Cagliari have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.23 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 8W 4D 10L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 8W 8D 6L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cagliari away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Modena
0
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Modena 2-0 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 60%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Modena) and 40% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Modena's games and 50% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Modena's recent games and 40% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cagliari tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.41 xG and Cagliari 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.09 / defence 1.14 against Cagliari attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 26%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 54%, Cagliari 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.27 PPG, Cagliari 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.