Mantova 4-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spezia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Spezia make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Danilo Martelli this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Spezia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Mantova against 0.70 for Spezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Mantova 0W, Spezia 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Spezia — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Spezia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.04 xG and Spezia 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.922 / defence 1.378 | Spezia attack 1.038 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.113. Data: 50 Mantova games / 50 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 22% | Draw 31% | Spezia 47%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Spezia 2.13. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 22% | Draw 31% | Spezia 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Mantova 1.04 / Spezia 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.922 / def 1.378 | Spezia attack 1.038 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Spezia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Spezia xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Spezia kick off?
Mantova vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Spezia?
Mantova 4 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Mantova vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Spezia part of?
Mantova vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 22% chance of winning, Spezia a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mantova and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Spezia?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 2 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Mantova and Spezia in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Spezia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.92) and Spezia's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (1.04x) against Mantova's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
22%
4.53
31%
3.25
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.64
1.59
Spezia xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
4%
22.24
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mantova and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mantova and 1.59 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 16D 21L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia's form line: 18W 19D 13L from 50 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Mantova against 1.46 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 7W 12D 5L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.40 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Spezia in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 13W 16D 21L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Spezia have gone 18W 19D 13L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Spezia away?
Mantova's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.46 PPG; Spezia away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Mantova or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Spezia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Mantova have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won 4-1 on 23 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mantova
2
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Spezia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Spezia 0-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Spezia?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 50%, Spezia 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mantova) and 25% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Spezia in 46%; Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mantova's recent matches and 38% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mantova's recent games and 25% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Spezia tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Spezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mantova run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Spezia 4-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.04 xG and Spezia 1.59 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.92 / defence 1.38 against Spezia attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 22% | Draw 31% | Spezia 47%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Mantova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Spezia 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.10 PPG, Spezia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.