Lecce 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 29 as Lecce welcome Brescia to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Lecce have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecce have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Lecce) versus 1.70 (Brescia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lecce, 0 for Brescia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lecce trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Brescia trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 57% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 50% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.34 xG and Brescia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.421 / defence 1.063 | Brescia attack 0.935 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.114. Lecce carry an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 Lecce games / 28 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 39% | Draw 34% | Brescia 28%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Brescia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 70% | Brescia 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 39% | Draw 34% | Brescia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Lecce 1.34 / Brescia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.421 / def 1.063 | Brescia attack 0.935 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Lecce (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Brescia xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Brescia kick off?
Lecce vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Brescia?
Lecce 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Lecce vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Brescia part of?
Lecce vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 39% chance of winning, Brescia a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lecce and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Lecce and Brescia in?
Lecce (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lecce's attack rating (1.42) and Brescia's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
39%
2.59
34%
2.96
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.44
1.11
Brescia xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lecce and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Lecce and 1.11 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce come into this having played 28 games, going 14W 11D 3L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (14W 9D 5L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.89 PPG, Brescia on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lecce's home form reads 9W 4D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 2.14 points per game from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.54 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Brescia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Brescia in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 11D 3L in their last 28 games (1.89 PPG), while Brescia have gone 14W 9D 5L in their last 28 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Brescia away?
Lecce's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.21 PPG; Brescia away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Lecce or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Brescia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, Brescia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Lecce 1-1 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 64%, Brescia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Lecce) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Brescia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Lecce's recent matches and 43% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Lecce's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Brescia tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.34 xG and Brescia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.42 / defence 1.06 against Brescia attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 39% | Draw 34% | Brescia 28%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 50%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.89 PPG, Brescia 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.