Juve Stabia 1-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juve Stabia face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Juve Stabia welcome Reggiana to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 9 May 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Juve Stabia have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Reggiana stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Reggiana away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.50 PPG versus Reggiana's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 1 for Reggiana and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2024, ended Juve Stabia 1–2 Reggiana — a Reggiana win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Reggiana trading profile (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 53% versus Reggiana 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Reggiana 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.59 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.012 / defence 0.895 | Reggiana attack 1.000 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.122. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Juve Stabia's projected output up. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 36 games and Reggiana's last 74.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 50% | Draw 28% | Reggiana 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.02 | Draw 3.59 | Reggiana 4.44. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 50% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 50% | Draw 28% | Reggiana 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Juve Stabia 1.59 / Reggiana 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.012 / def 0.895 | Reggiana attack 1.000 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Reggiana xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Juve Stabia vs Reggiana kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Reggiana kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 9 May 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Juve Stabia 1 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Reggiana part of?
Juve Stabia vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 50% chance of winning, Reggiana a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Juve Stabia and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Juve Stabia vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (1.01) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juve Stabia's last 36 games and Reggiana's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.59
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.59
1.00
Reggiana xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
21.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juve Stabia vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.00 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 15L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.50 PPG, Reggiana on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 10W 3D 4L from their last 17 home games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reggiana's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across their last 17 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.08 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
Juve Stabia (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Juve Stabia vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Juve Stabia and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Reggiana away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.94 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Reggiana in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Juve Stabia vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Reggiana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Juve Stabia have won 0, Reggiana have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Reggiana 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 47%, Reggiana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Juve Stabia) and 35% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Reggiana in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juve Stabia and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 53% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juve Stabia and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 35% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 65% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Juve Stabia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Juve Stabia 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.59 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 50% | Draw 28% | Reggiana 23%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 47%, Reggiana 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggiana's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.50 PPG, Reggiana 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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