Juve Stabia 2-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Monza in Serie B, Semi-finals. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monza have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Monza have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.60 for Monza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Monza — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.26 xG and Monza 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.926 / defence 0.931 | Monza attack 1.130 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.076. Data: 76 Juve Stabia games / 38 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 31% | Monza 32%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Monza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 31% | Monza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Juve Stabia 1.26 / Monza 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.926 / def 0.931 | Monza attack 1.130 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Monza xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Monza kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Monza kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Juve Stabia 2 - 2 Monza.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Monza part of?
Juve Stabia vs Monza is a Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 38% chance of winning, Monza a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Juve Stabia and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Monza 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Monza in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.93) and Monza's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.13x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 76/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.25
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Monza xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.13 for Monza, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 26W 29D 21L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 25W 19D 32L from 76 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.24 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.84 PPG from 38 outings (19W 13D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Monza have gone 10W 10D 18L from 38 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Monza in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 26W 29D 21L in their last 76 games (1.41 PPG), while Monza have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Monza away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.84 PPG; Monza away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Monza 2-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 47%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Juve Stabia) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Monza in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Monza tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Monza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Monza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Monza finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Semi-finals, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.26 xG and Monza 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Monza attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 31% | Monza 32%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 46%, Monza 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG, Monza 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.