Juve Stabia 2-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Juve Stabia take on Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Monza in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Monza have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Monza have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monza are 1.00 PPG clear of Juve Stabia in recent Serie B fixtures (2.50 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Monza — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 49% versus Monza 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Monza 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.91 xG and Monza 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.907 / defence 0.717 | Monza attack 1.096 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.055. Monza's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Juve Stabia games / 13 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 34% | Draw 37% | Monza 29%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Monza 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Monza's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 34% | Draw 37% | Monza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Juve Stabia 0.91 / Monza 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.907 / def 0.717 | Monza attack 1.096 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Monza xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Monza kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Juve Stabia 2 - 2 Monza.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Monza part of?
Juve Stabia vs Monza is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 34% chance of winning, Monza a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Juve Stabia and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Monza in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Monza (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.91) and Monza's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.10x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 50/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
37%
2.71
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.74
0.83
Monza xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.83 for Monza, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 19W 17D 15L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 12W 11D 28L from 51 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.92 PPG from 25 outings (14W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Monza have gone 5W 6D 14L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.90 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Monza in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 19W 17D 15L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Monza have gone 12W 11D 28L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Monza away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.92 PPG; Monza away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Monza in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Monza 2-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 44%, Monza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Juve Stabia) and 48% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Monza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 48% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 48% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Monza tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Monza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Monza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 14, as Juve Stabia and Monza drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 0.91 xG and Monza 0.83 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 0.72 against Monza attack 1.10 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 34% | Draw 37% | Monza 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Monza 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.