Juve Stabia vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mantova make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Mantova (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mantova are 0.50 PPG clear of Juve Stabia in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Mantova 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.94 xG and Mantova 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.868 / defence 0.968 | Mantova attack 1.062 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Juve Stabia games / 48 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 26% | Draw 32% | Mantova 42%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Mantova 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 50% | Mantova 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 26% | Draw 32% | Mantova 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Juve Stabia 0.94 / Mantova 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.868 / def 0.968 | Mantova attack 1.062 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Mantova xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Mantova kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Mantova part of?
Juve Stabia vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 26% chance of winning, Mantova a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Juve Stabia and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
Record (4 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 1 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Mantova in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Mantova (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.87) and Mantova's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.06x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
26%
3.92
32%
3.08
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.21
1.27
Mantova xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.27 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 20D 13L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (18W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.33 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Juve Stabia's home form reads 9W 9D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 15W 20D 13L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Mantova away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.64 PPG; Mantova away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Mantova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Mantova 2-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Mantova 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Juve Stabia) and 54% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mantova in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 54% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Mantova tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mantova in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.