Genoa 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Como make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Como have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Como have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Genoa's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Como's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 44% versus Como 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 42% | Como 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.39 xG and Como 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.793 / defence 1.009 | Como attack 0.896 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.096. Genoa's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Genoa games / 50 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 30% | Como 25%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Como 4.00. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 40% | Como 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 30% | Como 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Genoa 1.39 / Como 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.793 / def 1.009 | Como attack 0.896 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Genoa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Como xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Como kick off?
Genoa vs Como kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Como?
Genoa 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Genoa vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Como part of?
Genoa vs Como is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 45% chance of winning, Como a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Como?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genoa and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Como in?
Genoa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Como (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Como's attack (0.90x) against Genoa's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.33
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.38
0.99
Como xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Genoa and 0.99 for Como, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 20D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.18 PPG from 50 outings (14W 17D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Genoa against 1.18 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 4W 12D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Como in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 20D 20L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while Como have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.00 PPG; Como away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Genoa or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Como in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Genoa
4
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Como have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Como last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Como.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Como 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Genoa) and 54% (Como).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Genoa's games and 71% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Genoa's recent games and 54% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Como tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Como in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, as Genoa and Como drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.39 xG and Como 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Como attack 0.90 / defence 1.41, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 45% | Draw 30% | Como 25%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Como 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.00 PPG, Como 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Como (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.