Genoa 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Brescia at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 2.10 PPG, Brescia 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Brescia in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 42% versus Brescia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 42% | Brescia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.41 xG and Brescia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.802 / defence 1.005 | Brescia attack 1.064 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.109. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Genoa games / 48 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 27% | Brescia 31%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Brescia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 30% | Brescia 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 27% | Brescia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Genoa 1.41 / Brescia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.802 / def 1.005 | Brescia attack 1.064 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Genoa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Brescia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Brescia kick off?
Genoa vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Brescia?
Genoa 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Genoa vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Brescia part of?
Genoa vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 41% chance of winning, Brescia a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Genoa and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Brescia in?
Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Brescia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.65
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.59
1.19
Brescia xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Genoa and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Genoa and 1.19 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa's recent record stands at 10W 19D 19L from 48 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 11L across 48 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brescia by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 4W 11D 8L from 23 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.33 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Brescia in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 19D 19L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Brescia have gone 20W 17D 11L in their last 48 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.00 PPG; Brescia away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Genoa or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Brescia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
1
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Brescia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Brescia 0-3 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Brescia?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 39%, Brescia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Genoa) and 39% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Brescia in 35%; Genoa have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Genoa's recent matches and 52% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Genoa's recent games and 39% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Brescia tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Brescia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.41 xG and Brescia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against Brescia attack 1.06 / defence 1.39, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 41% | Draw 27% | Brescia 31%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Brescia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.