Frosinone 2-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Frosinone, 1.60 for Benevento — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 4–1 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 48% versus Benevento 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 48% | Benevento 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.23 xG and Benevento 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.175 / defence 0.924 | Benevento attack 0.942 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.061. Data: 30 Frosinone games / 29 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 40% | Draw 36% | Benevento 24%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Benevento 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 40% | Benevento 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 40% | Draw 36% | Benevento 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Frosinone 1.23 / Benevento 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.175 / def 0.924 | Benevento attack 0.942 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Benevento xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Benevento kick off?
Frosinone vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Benevento?
Frosinone 2 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Frosinone vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Benevento part of?
Frosinone vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Frosinone and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 0 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Benevento in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.18x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.94x) against Frosinone's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
40%
2.52
36%
2.77
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.16
0.92
Benevento xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.92 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone's recent record stands at 12W 11D 6L from 29 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 6L across 29 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Frosinone against 1.76 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 7W 5D 2L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benevento's away record stands at 6W 5D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.62 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Benevento in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Benevento in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 12W 11D 6L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while Benevento have gone 14W 9D 6L in their last 29 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Benevento away?
Frosinone's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.86 PPG; Benevento away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Benevento in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 1-4 on 6 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Frosinone 1-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Benevento?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 43%, Benevento 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Frosinone) and 14% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Benevento in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Frosinone's recent matches and 43% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Frosinone's recent games and 14% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Benevento tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Benevento in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Benevento 2-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.23 xG and Benevento 0.92 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Benevento landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Benevento attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 40% | Draw 36% | Benevento 24%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 48%, Benevento 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.62 PPG, Benevento 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.