Empoli 1-1 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Empoli at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani plays host to Empoli versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Virtus Entella's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Empoli against 1.00 for Virtus Entella. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Empoli lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Virtus Entella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 62% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 50% | Virtus Entella 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.58 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.976 / defence 1.185 | Virtus Entella attack 0.555 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.105. Data: 34 Empoli games / 34 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 56% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 15%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Virtus Entella 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 70% | Virtus Entella 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 56% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Empoli 1.58 / Virtus Entella 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.976 / def 1.185 | Virtus Entella attack 0.555 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Empoli (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Empoli vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Virtus Entella?
Empoli 1 - 1 Virtus Entella.
Where is Empoli vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Virtus Entella part of?
Empoli vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 56% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Empoli and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Virtus Entella 1W.
What form are Empoli and Virtus Entella in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.98) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.56x) against Empoli's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
56%
1.78
29%
3.48
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.31
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
32.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Empoli and 0.73 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 8W 12D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Virtus Entella's form line: 8W 11D 15L from 34 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Empoli against 1.03 for Virtus Entella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (4W 10D 3L).
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 1W 4D 12L from 17 away games — 0.41 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.94 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Virtus Entella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 12D 14L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Virtus Entella away?
Empoli's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.29 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Empoli
1
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Empoli 1-1 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Virtus Entella?
Virtus Entella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 76%, Virtus Entella 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Empoli) and 35% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Virtus Entella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Empoli's games and 35% of Virtus Entella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Empoli's recent games and 35% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Virtus Entella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Virtus Entella finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.58 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.19 against Virtus Entella attack 0.56 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 56% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 15%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Virtus Entella 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.