Crotone 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 38%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crotone vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Ezio Scida to face Crotone in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crotone have posted 1W 3D 2L at Stadio Ezio Scida — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza away from home this season: 0W 4D 2L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monza are 1.00 PPG clear of Crotone in recent Serie B fixtures (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Crotone — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Monza — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 64% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 64% | Monza 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.14 xG and Monza 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.965 / defence 1.374 | Monza attack 0.633 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.006 / away 1.158. Data: 11 Crotone games / 11 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 38% | Draw 32% | Monza 31%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crotone are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crotone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crotone 67% | Monza 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 38% | Draw 32% | Monza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Crotone 1.14 / Monza 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.965 / def 1.374 | Monza attack 0.633 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.006 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Crotone (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Monza xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Monza kick off?
Crotone vs Monza kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Monza?
Crotone 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Crotone vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Monza part of?
Crotone vs Monza is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 38% chance of winning, Monza a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crotone and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Monza in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crotone's attack at 0.96x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.63x) against Crotone's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
38%
2.67
32%
3.17
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.14
1.01
Monza xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Crotone and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Crotone and 1.01 for Monza, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crotone's recent record stands at 1W 4D 6L from 11 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 2L across 11 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monza by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crotone have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 0W 4D 2L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Attack vs Defence
Crotone are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.91 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Monza in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Monza in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Monza have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Monza away?
Crotone's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.00 PPG; Monza away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Crotone or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crotone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Monza in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Monza 1-0 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 67%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Crotone) and 33% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 33%; Crotone have failed to score in 33% of games; Monza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Crotone's games and 50% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Crotone's recent games and 33% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Monza tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Monza in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crotone and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 12, as Crotone and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.14 xG and Monza 1.01 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.96 / defence 1.37 against Monza attack 0.63 / defence 1.17, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 38% | Draw 32% | Monza 31%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 64%, Monza 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crotone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.