Cremonese 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cremonese at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Juve Stabia.

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Fixture Analysis

Cremonese welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Juve Stabia — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Juve Stabia's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.90 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Cremonese's last 10 home games and Juve Stabia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Cremonese have won 1, Juve Stabia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Cremonese 2–1 Juve Stabia — a Cremonese win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Cremonese trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Juve Stabia trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 62% versus Juve Stabia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 56% | Juve Stabia 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.76 xG and Juve Stabia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.243 / defence 1.105 | Juve Stabia attack 0.865 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.174. Data: built from Cremonese's last 70 games and Juve Stabia's last 32.

Result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 23%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.96 | Draw 3.80 | Juve Stabia 4.41. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cremonese's last 10 home games and Juve Stabia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 70% (last 10 home games) | Juve Stabia 70% (last 10 away games).

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