Cremonese 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Frosinone meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 3D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 0L across 6 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 43% versus Frosinone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 36% | Frosinone 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.98 xG and Frosinone 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.061 / defence 1.057 | Frosinone attack 1.103 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.157. Data: 14 Cremonese games / 14 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 27% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 45%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 2.22. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 43% | Frosinone 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 27% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Cremonese 0.98 / Frosinone 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.061 / def 1.057 | Frosinone attack 1.103 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Frosinone xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Frosinone kick off?
Cremonese vs Frosinone kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Cremonese vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Frosinone part of?
Cremonese vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 27% chance of winning, Frosinone a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cremonese and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Frosinone in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.06) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.10x) against Cremonese's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
27%
3.73
29%
3.50
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.33
1.35
Frosinone xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.36
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.35 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 6W 4D 4L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 5W 8D 1L from 14 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Cremonese against 1.64 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Frosinone in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 5W 8D 1L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.50 PPG; Frosinone away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Frosinone in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cremonese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Frosinone 0-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Frosinone?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Cremonese and 17% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Frosinone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Cremonese's recent games and 17% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Frosinone tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.98 xG and Frosinone 1.35 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Frosinone attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 27% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 45%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 36%, Frosinone 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.57 PPG, Frosinone 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.