Como 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to face Como in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Como (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Como against 0.90 for Venezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Como 63% and Venezia 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 39% | Venezia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.31 xG and Venezia 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.982 / defence 1.122 | Venezia attack 1.108 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.093. Data: 49 Como games / 11 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 35% | Draw 28% | Venezia 37%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Venezia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Como 50% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 35% | Draw 28% | Venezia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Como 1.31 / Venezia 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.982 / def 1.122 | Venezia attack 1.108 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Venezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Venezia xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Venezia kick off?
Como vs Venezia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Venezia?
Como 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Como vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Venezia part of?
Como vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Como a 35% chance of winning, Venezia a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Como and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Venezia in?
Como (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Como's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.11x) against Como's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.52
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Como xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
Venezia xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Como and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Como and 1.36 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Como's recent record stands at 13W 17D 19L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 29L across 49 games — 0.73 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Como by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Como have managed 7W 9D 8L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.94 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Venezia in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Venezia in coming into this match?
Como have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Venezia have gone 8W 12D 29L in their last 49 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Venezia away?
Como's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.25 PPG; Venezia away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Como
2
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Como 1-1 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 58%, Venezia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Como) and 46% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Como's games and 58% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Como's recent games and 46% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Venezia tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Venezia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.31 xG and Venezia 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Venezia attack 1.11 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 35% | Draw 28% | Venezia 37%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 39%, Venezia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.