Como 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Como and Lecce meet at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Como have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Lecce's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lecce arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Como, 0 for Lecce and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 60% versus Lecce 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 30% | Lecce 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 0.85 xG and Lecce 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.924 / defence 1.020 | Lecce attack 0.795 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.249. Data: 20 Como games / 20 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 28% | Draw 35% | Lecce 37%. Fair-value odds: Como 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Lecce 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Como 50% | Lecce 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 28% | Draw 35% | Lecce 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Como 0.85 / Lecce 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.924 / def 1.020 | Lecce attack 0.795 / def 0.946 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Lecce (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Lecce xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Lecce kick off?
Como vs Lecce kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Lecce?
Como 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Como vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Lecce part of?
Como vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Como a 28% chance of winning, Lecce a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Como and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 1 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Como and Lecce in?
Como (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Lecce (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Como's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lecce's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.80x) against Como's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
28%
3.56
35%
2.86
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Como xG
Total xG
1.86
1.01
Lecce xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 15.7 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Como and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Como and 1.01 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Como have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 6W 8D 6L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce's form line: 11W 7D 2L from 20 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lecce are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Como.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Como have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Lecce have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.70 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lecce in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Lecce in coming into this match?
Como have gone 6W 8D 6L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 7D 2L in their last 20 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.30 PPG; Lecce away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Como or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Lecce in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Como have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 0-3 on 19 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Como
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 4, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Como 3-1 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Como and Lecce?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 50%, Lecce 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Como and 40% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Lecce in 40%; Como have failed to score in 30% of games; Lecce in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Como's recent matches and 40% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Como's recent games and 40% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Lecce tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lecce in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 21, as Como and Lecce drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 0.85 xG and Lecce 1.01 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Lecce attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 28% | Draw 35% | Lecce 37%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 30%, Lecce 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.