Cittadella 0-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Cittadella welcome Genoa to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cittadella's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Genoa have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Genoa are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cittadella, 0 for Genoa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Cittadella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cittadella trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Genoa trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 41% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 34% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.02 xG and Genoa 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.864 / defence 1.180 | Genoa attack 1.136 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.977. Data: 71 Cittadella games / 33 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 28% | Draw 29% | Genoa 42%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 30% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 28% | Draw 29% | Genoa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Cittadella 1.02 / Genoa 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.864 / def 1.180 | Genoa attack 1.136 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Genoa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Genoa xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Genoa kick off?
Cittadella vs Genoa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Genoa?
Cittadella 0 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Cittadella vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Genoa part of?
Cittadella vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 28% chance of winning, Genoa a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cittadella and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 1W | Draws 0 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Genoa in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.86x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.41
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.33
1.31
Genoa xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.31 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 21W 26D 24L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 22W 26D 23L from 71 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.25 PPG, Genoa on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (11W 12D 12L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 9W 12D 14L from 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cittadella are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Genoa in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 21W 26D 24L in their last 71 games (1.25 PPG), while Genoa have gone 22W 26D 23L in their last 71 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Genoa away?
Cittadella's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.29 PPG; Genoa away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Genoa in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cittadella and Genoa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cittadella
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Cittadella 0-1 Genoa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 37%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cittadella) and 49% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 40% of games; Genoa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cittadella's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cittadella's recent games and 49% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Genoa tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Genoa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Cittadella 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Cittadella 0-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.02 xG and Genoa 1.31 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cittadella fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Genoa attack 1.14 / defence 1.03, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 28% | Draw 29% | Genoa 42%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 34%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.25 PPG, Genoa 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.