Carrarese 3-1 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Virtus Entella have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Carrarese, 1.00 for Virtus Entella — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 53% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 53% | Virtus Entella 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.73 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.970 / defence 1.036 | Virtus Entella attack 0.702 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.052. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Carrarese games / 15 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 59% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Virtus Entella 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Virtus Entella 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 59% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Carrarese 1.73 / Virtus Entella 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.970 / def 1.036 | Virtus Entella attack 0.702 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Virtus Entella xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Carrarese vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?
Carrarese 3 - 1 Virtus Entella.
Where is Carrarese vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Virtus Entella part of?
Carrarese vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 59% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Carrarese and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Virtus Entella in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Virtus Entella's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.70x) against Carrarese's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
59%
1.68
25%
3.94
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.49
0.77
Virtus Entella xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
36.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.77 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carrarese come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 7D 5L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Carrarese against 1.00 for Virtus Entella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Carrarese's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.93 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 5L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Virtus Entella away?
Carrarese's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.29 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Virtus Entella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Virtus Entella in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 29%, Virtus Entella 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 43% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 57% of games; Virtus Entella in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Carrarese's recent matches and 43% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 43% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Virtus Entella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Virtus Entella 3-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.73 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Virtus Entella attack 0.70 / defence 1.34, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 59% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 15%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 53%, Virtus Entella 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.07 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.