Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 47%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Sampdoria at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sampdoria — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Sampdoria 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.30 xG and Sampdoria 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.905 / defence 0.908 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.110. Data: 68 Carrarese games / 68 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 47% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 21%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Sampdoria 4.76. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Sampdoria 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 47% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Carrarese 1.30 / Sampdoria 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.905 / def 0.908 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Sampdoria xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Carrarese vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Carrarese 2 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Carrarese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Sampdoria part of?
Carrarese vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 47% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Carrarese and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Record (3 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Sampdoria in?
Carrarese (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.15
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.10
0.80
Sampdoria xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.80 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 24D 26L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 16W 26D 26L from 68 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.15 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.61 PPG from 33 outings (14W 11D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 14D 16L from 33 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.99 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 18W 24D 26L in their last 68 games (1.15 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 16W 26D 26L in their last 68 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Sampdoria away?
Carrarese's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.61 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Carrarese's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carrarese
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 33%, Sampdoria 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Carrarese) and 52% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 39% of games; Sampdoria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carrarese's recent matches and 70% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Carrarese's recent games and 52% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Sampdoria 2-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.30 xG and Sampdoria 0.80 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 47% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 21%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sampdoria's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.15 PPG, Sampdoria 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.