Carrarese 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Frosinone at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 0.90 PPG, Frosinone 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Carrarese have won 1, Frosinone 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Carrarese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 43% versus Frosinone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 43% | Frosinone 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.43 xG and Frosinone 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.022 / defence 1.227 | Frosinone attack 0.779 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.076. Data: 28 Carrarese games / 28 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Frosinone 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 30% | Frosinone 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Carrarese 1.43 / Frosinone 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.022 / def 1.227 | Frosinone attack 0.779 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Frosinone xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Frosinone kick off?
Carrarese vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Carrarese 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Carrarese vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Frosinone part of?
Carrarese vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 44% chance of winning, Frosinone a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Carrarese and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Carrarese and Frosinone in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (1.02) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.33
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.46
1.03
Frosinone xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.03 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carrarese come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 8D 12L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (5W 12D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.14 PPG, Frosinone on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Carrarese's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 0.85 points per game from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 8W 8D 12L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 5W 12D 11L in their last 28 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Frosinone away?
Carrarese's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.69 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Frosinone in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carrarese's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Frosinone 3-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 31%, Frosinone 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Carrarese) and 38% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 31% of games; Frosinone in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Carrarese's recent matches and 62% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Carrarese's recent games and 38% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Frosinone tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Carrarese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Carrarese 0-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.43 xG and Frosinone 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against Frosinone attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 44% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 25%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 43%, Frosinone 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.14 PPG, Frosinone 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.