Carrarese 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Carrarese welcome Bari to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Bari — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 0.90 PPG, Bari 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Bari and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Carrarese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Bari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.58 xG and Bari 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.966 / defence 0.978 | Bari attack 0.745 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.037. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Carrarese games / 56 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 55% | Draw 28% | Bari 16%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Bari 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 55% | Draw 28% | Bari 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Carrarese 1.58 / Bari 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.966 / def 0.978 | Bari attack 0.745 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Bari xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Bari kick off?
Carrarese vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Bari?
Carrarese 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Carrarese vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Bari part of?
Carrarese vs Bari is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 55% chance of winning, Bari a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Carrarese and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Bari?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Carrarese and Bari in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Bari (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.97) and Bari's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
55%
1.80
28%
3.54
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.33
0.76
Bari xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
29.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.76 for Bari, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Bari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 15W 20D 21L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 13W 26D 17L from 56 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.16 PPG, Bari on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (13W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 13D 12L from 28 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.02 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Bari in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 15W 20D 21L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 26D 17L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Bari away?
Carrarese's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.71 PPG; Bari away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bari in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Carrarese have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Carrarese won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carrarese's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Carrarese
1
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 3, Bari have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bari 0-3 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Bari?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 36%, Bari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 39% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bari in 32%; Carrarese have failed to score in 36% of games; Bari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Carrarese's recent matches and 46% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 39% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Bari tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.58 xG and Bari 0.76 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Bari attack 0.74 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 55% | Draw 28% | Bari 16%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bari's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.16 PPG, Bari 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.